Russia's poor 'need crisis help'

By James Rodgers
BBC News, Moscow
Russia's economy will shrink by 4.5% this year because of the global downturn, the World Bank has predicted.
The Bank said Russia, a major oil producer, would be particularly hard hit by the low price of oil.

It said the Kremlin should shift the focus of its anti-crisis programme to the poor because of "the threat of significant social pressure".
The Bank added that aid to Russia's poor might have the added benefit of stimulating domestic demand.

Unrest feared

The World Bank says that the social situation in Russia has worsened so rapidly and so unexpectedly that it is important to shift the focus of the anti-crisis policy to the population.
It says that the Russian government should increase payments to the unemployed and to pensioners.

Since the global economic downturn began to affect Russia, the authorities here have been worried by the prospect of social unrest - especially in towns where single enterprises are the engine of the entire local economy.

The government insists that it has the funds to meet social spending requirements, but the World Bank's prediction is likely to cause further concern.

While the Bank expects the Russian economy to shrink by 4.5% this year, the Russian government predicts a 2.2% contraction.

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Owen has England future - Lampard

England midfielder Frank Lampard says manager Fabio Capello has not shut the door on Newcastle striker Michael Owen.

Owen is yet to play under Capello and was recently referred to as England's "history" by the Italian.

But Lampard says the 29-year-old, who has scored 40 goals in 89 England caps, should not give up hope of a recall.

"Michael Owen is one of the best strikers ever to play for England and I am sure if he is fit and playing well, he will be in the team," said Lampard.

"His goalscoring record is unbelievable, but he has been injured for a long time and Fabio does not feel he is ready to play," added the Chelsea man.

Lampard insisted there is nothing personal between Owen and Capello and that his exclusion is just down to fitness and form.

"Capello has shown he is a fair manager and has no personal agendas, he just wants to win games," said Lampard.

"The situation would be the same if I was injured or if Wayne Rooney is injured. If you are fit and playing well you will be in."

Capello opted to call up Darren Bent after Carlton Cole was ruled out of the game against Ukraine on Wednesday because of a thigh injury.

Emile Heskey will also miss the World Cup qualifier after picking up a hamstring injury in the early stages of the friendly win over Slovakia at the weekend.

But Capello has ruled out bringing in Owen, who has only just returned to action for his club Newcastle after an ankle ligament problem.

"My view is the same as Fabio's, he hasn't played enough football," said the England Under-21 coach, who is also a member of Capello's backroom staff.

"If the manager leads from the top and says that's the reason behind Michael not playing, then that's the reason.

"The one thing Fabio doesn't do is shut the door on anyone. It has been mentioned that certain individuals have had the door closed on them, but that is not the case.

"They are not the words that Fabio uses and his actions are not like that either.

"Anyone that's on form and fit and playing for their club will get an opportunity and he has certainly shown that with the Under-21s where he has put the likes of Gabby (Gabriel Agbonlahor); Milly (James Milner); Theo (Walcott) and Aaron (Lennon), who played on Saturday, into the senior squad.

"It is very pleasing for me that these players have had an opportunity because their form has been good enough for their clubs."

Meanwhile, Lampard warned his England team-mates about the threat of former Chelsea striker Andriy Shevchenko ahead of the meeting with Ukraine at Wembley.

The England midfielder played with the Ukrainian forward at Stamford Bridge for two seasons and although Shevchenko's time at Chelsea was not deemed to be a great success, Lampard has no doubt the 32-year-old will be a threat.

Capello has given us our confidence back - Barry
"Shevchenko is obviously a fantastic player," he said.

"He will be a huge threat to us, because he can produce something out of the blue.

"I think he had a few injury problems and settling-in problems when he was in England.

"But as soon as you hear the name Shevchenko, you know he is going to be a threat - and this is a game he will really be wanting to do well in."
England will record their fifth successive Group Six qualifying victory if they beat Ukraine on Wednesday.

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Price of oil drops as rally ends

The price of oil has fallen by almost $2 after several days of gains following more bad economic news that dragged global stock markets lower.
The price of US light crude fell by $1.95, or 3.6%, to $52.39 a barrel. London Brent oil fell $1.57 to $51.89.

On Thursday, prices hit their highest level of the year as economic optimism led to hope of increased demand.

But bad economic data from Japan and the US sent Wall Street lower and helped put an end to the recent rally.

'Depressing data'

Recent price hikes have led some analysts to call the start of a bull run in oil prices.

But "depressing economic data have put a halt to the recent rally", said Christopher Bellew at Bache Commodities.
"People are getting way ahead of the game," added Michael Lynch at Strategic Energy & Economic Research.

Data showed that retail sales in Japan saw their biggest fall in seven years in February, while growth in US consumer spending in the month slowed compared with January.

South Korea and Vietnam also reported weak economic data, providing more evidence that the global slowdown is hitting Asia's economies.
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No end to Japan's industry woes

Japan's manufacturing output has fallen for the fifth straight month in February, official figures show.

Industrial production fell 9.4% annually, but rebounded from January's record 10.2% plunge, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said.

Separate industry data showed that car production in Japan dropped 56.2% last month from a year ago.

Japan, which relies heavily on exports, has been hit as the global downturn has sapped demand for its goods.

Stimulus spending
The Japan Automobile Manufact

urers Association said that automobile production in February dropped to 481,396 vehicles, also down for the fifth month. Output fell in all areas, including passenger cars, trucks and buses.

Separately, Japan's Finance Minister Kaoru Yosano said that Japan was prepared to implement an economic stimulus package that would "far exceed" 2% of its gross domestic product.

The 2% target was set out by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as a guide for the minimum that nations should inject into their economies to revive economic growth.

The IMF has predicted Japan's economy will contract by 5.8% during 2009.

Mr Yosano said in an interview in the Wall Street Journal the government would aim to inject more than 2% to avoid that outcome.

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First Brawn Supremacy

By Sarah Holt
BBC Sport in Melbourne
In securing a one-two at the season-opening Australian Grand Prix, they have completed one of the most remarkable turnarounds in the sport's history.

Team principal Ross Brawn was only confirmed as the team's owner 23 days ago, and yet already the team that rose from the ashes of Honda's withdrawal from the sport are the hottest team on the grid.

And that, says Melbourne winner Jenson Button, is just the start
"We should be the underdogs - but we're not," said Button, who endured a difficult winter not even knowing if he had a drive for the new season. "One of the reasons I was hanging in there was because I wanted to race this car in 2009 as it's so strong.

"I hope to sustain our performance, that has to be the aim.

"We want to compete the whole season because we are here for the championship."

However, while the manner of Button's win in Australia suggests a title challenge is in the offing, Brawn face a long road ahead as question marks remain over the team's ability to sustain their momentum.

The top priority is to find new cash and sponsors - notwithstanding the new "substantial sponsorship deal" with Richard Branson's Virgin Group - amid the budget-squeezing climate of the credit crunch.

The team believe they could operate under proposals by the sport's governing body, the FIA, to cap annual budgets at £30m.

More sponsors to follow Virgin are expected in the coming weeks but finding a sustained partnership at a time when Renault, BMW Sauber and Williams have all lost key deals will be testing.

The team are already cutting back their budget and will cut their staff from more than 700 to 450. And on the track, it is considered inevitable that the leading teams will start to eat into Brawn's advantage.

Firstly, the team have no plan to install kinetic energy recovery system (Kers) - the optional system which gives McLaren drivers an extra boost of 80bhp for seven seconds a lap.

That could begin to negate Brawn's pace advantage and Button believes it will be impossible to overtake a car which is using Kers.

There is also the chance that their car could be found illegal. Three teams lodged a complaint in Australia against the legality of Brawn's U-shaped rear diffuser design, and though the FIA rejected the protest an appeal will be heard next month.

And while Brawn is soon expected to introduce a new sidepod design which may add another three-tenths of a second to their pace, they cannot expect to stay ahead of the game indefinitely.

The team that raced last season as Honda were plunged into disarray in December when the Japanese manufacturer withdrew from Formula 1 because of the global economic crisis.

After an uncertain winter spent looking for a buyer, team principal Brawn was finally unveiled as the new owner on 6 March - and Brawn GP was born. From that moment on, there has been no looking back.

Even before Button's victory on Sunday, the team's rivals could see the writing on the wall.
In Thursday's first official media session in Melbourne, Ferrari's Felipe Massa said: "The picture from the winter is that Brawn is better than anybody. Maybe we are all fighting for third place."

Button, who was seated behind the 2008 championship runner-up, leaned forward and with a huge grin responded: "Sounds good to me."

And who can blame the Englishman for being in high spirits after a winter of discontent and two years struggling with an uncompetitive car?

The 29-year-old, who joined Honda in its former BAR guise in 2003, spent the off-season waiting patiently to find out if he still had a race seat.

Despite being linked with a move to Toro Rosso, Button, along with team-mate Barrichello, kept faith that the team would find a way to survive.

"It wasn't an option not to believe," said Button. "When we found out in December (about Honda's withdrawal) it was a big shock. I was expecting a negative atmosphere at the team but everyone has been really good. It was a difficult winter but we came through it."

Still, despite a £1 price-tag and potential interest, the team's survival hung in the balance.
"There was an absolute fear that that might be it," said team chief executive Nick Fry, who spent months trying to sell the former Honda team.

"We went through a period of incredible highs and lows. It was never the intention of any of the management to own the team, but Honda ending up selling to Ross and we all supported him."

Brawn, 54, pooled together money from the team's share of F1's commercial income, divvied out by rights holder Bernie Ecclestone and existing sponsorship deals.

He also relied heavily on the good grace and generosity of Honda.

"I can't speak highly enough of Honda," said Fry. "They didn't just walk away and now we have a bit of breathing space."

Not even the absence a £300m manufacturer budget and only seven testing days on the track has halted Brawn GP's progress.

Not that Brawn GP is an overnight success, says Fry. "This is not something that happens by magic. This is the culmination of a long period of work."

Indeed it is. To give themselves the best chance of competing with their rivals, the team began work on their 2009 car as far back as November 2007.

With the raft of introductions including kers, an adjustable front-wing flap, and slick, non-treaded tyres - all designed to promote overtaking - Brawn GP stole an advantage by beginning development early.

BMW Sauber and McLaren also began work on their 2009 cars early last year but Brawn are perceived to have had at least a three-month head start.

And they appear to have benefited from the huge investment Honda poured into their headquarters in Brackley, Northamptonshire.

Brawn's new team were able to work with a full-size wind tunnel, a simulator and specialist equipment to tune the gearbox and engine and model the car, all of which came from Honda's capital investment.

When Brawn arrived at the team in late 2007 after 10 years as Ferrari's technical director, he also reorganised the staff, honing the levels of expertise within his aerodynamic and engineering teams.

The challenge now, having set the pace in such blistering fashion in Australia, is to maintain the high standards that have seen them take Formula 1 by storm.

"Hopefully this win is the first of many," said Button after Sunday's victory and, given Brawn GP's track record so far, who would bet against it being so?

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Americans Remain Optimistic About Economy: Survey

Americans remain broadly optimistic about their economic prospects in the middle of the most severe recession since World War Two, according to a survey released Thursday.
The Pew Economic Mobility Project found that despite dismal economic conditions and decades of widening income inequality, Americans still widely believe in the "American Dream": the idea that success is determined by one's willingness to work hard, not the circumstances of one's birth or other external forces.
The nationwide survey of 2,119 adults found that:

79 % said it is still possible to get ahead in the current economy;
72 % said they believed they will personally be better off 10 years from now;
74 % said they were at least somewhat in control of their economic situation, but only
43 % said that other people were in control;
71 % said personal ambition was a more important determinant of success than external conditions.
But the survey also reflected the worsening economy: only 32 percent rated their own personal circumstances as "excellent" or "good," down from 52 percent in 2006.
"There is a strong and a uniquely American optimism which is persisting even in the face of these very, very trying times," said John Morton, the managing director of economic policy at the Pew Charitable Trusts, the nonprofit organization that sponsored the survey, which has a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.
That optimism is somewhat at odds with the group's 2008 report, which found that parents' income is strongly linked to one's chances to succeed.
Some 39 percent of those surveyed said that it is common in America to be born poor and become rich, when in fact only 6 percent of Americans born to parents in the poorest fifth of the population end up in the richest fifth.
Most did not believe that the chances of success are tied to parents' income when in fact a strong link does exist, the group said.
The survey, conducted between Jan. 27 and Feb. 8, also found widespread skepticism toward government efforts to reduce inequality. Some 46 percent said the government does more to hurt than help people's efforts to move up the economic ladder. But specific government policies got a better reception.
A majority of respondents backed making college affordable, reducing healthcare costs, making retirement savings easier and improving early childhood education — all efforts that President Barack Obama has proposed in his first months in office.
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World's richest at a time of crisis

Who are the world's richest today?

In March, 2008, the Forbes published its list of the richest people in the world. The country that had the most spots in the top 15 was India followed by the U.S.

But our latest crisis has largely reconfigured the world’s map in terms of riches.

According to Forbes Magazine's 2009 list, not only has the overall number of billionaires diminished from 1,125 to 793, but their wealth has dwindled.

Together, the top three lost $68 billion in the year to Feb. 13, when Forbes 23rd annual ranking of the world's billionaires compiled its list of the wealthiest people in the world.

Titled "Billionaire Bust", this month’s Forbes special issue announced a drop on this year’s wealth of more than 45%, 2.4 trillion U.S. dollars, down from 4.4 trillion last year.

The U.S. has regained the top spot, while India has lost not only its leading post, but has been replaced by China as leading the group of most promising emerging economies.

New York City replaced Moscow as home to the most billionaires, with 55, but still the U.S. has 110 fewer billionaires than it did a year ago.

Russia, which witnessed an increase in the number of super- rich in recent years, underwent among the biggest drops, with the number of billionaires down to 32 from 87.

In the midst of this, Bill Gates regained his crown as the richest man in the world, worth 40 billion U.S. dollars, despite losing 18 billion in the past 12 months.

Not as lucky, Warren Buffet, Forbes’ former leader worth 37 billion U.S. dollars, had to be content with second place after sustaining huge losses in the past year.

Nevertheless, he remains confident about the future: "Our economic system (US) has worked extraordinarily well over time. It has unleashed human potential as no other system has, and it will continue to do so."

Third place is held by Mexican Carlos Slim Helú, worth 35 billion and richest man in Latin America, whose fortune nonetheless, didn’t remain intact in these times of economic turmoil.

Indian businessman Anil Ambani, who was the biggest gainer on last year's list, fell to 34 with an estimated wealth of 10.1 billion U.S. dollars after having 32 billion wiped out over the last 12 months.

According to Steve Forbes, Chief Executive of Forbes Magazines, "The typical billionaire is down at least one third on their net worth."

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